Thank you for acknowledging that Orban's ouster was a good day for democracy. I was beginning to wonder where you argument was headed. Let me, if you will, add something about this victory that you did not mention and which I believe is relevant for not only Hungary; not only other authoritarian regimes, and not least the United States: the turnout of young voters. This referendum was as much about generational change and the quest of young voters to support political leaders who they believe embody their values and future well-being. It was a referendum against a generation that views politics as a means to their self-enrichment. The veil has been lifted, and I suspect young voters elsewhere will seek to disenfranchise political leaders with the same objectives.
I agree with your assessment but I would like to know why the swing away from Orban only embraced the centre right. What became of the Left in Hungarian politics?
A very good question. I think the political Left in Hungary and many other EU countries has been weakened in recent years, with the centre right and the emergence of far right parties demonstrating increasing strength with voters.
For example, in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, the centre-right EPP secured 188 out of 720 seats, followed by the Social Democrats (S&D) with 136 seats and the far-right Patriots for Europe group with 84 seats. The shift moved the political spectrum rightward, with the majority of MEPs now sitting on the right side of the chamber.
At the national level, seven EU member states — Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Slovakia — now have far-right parties within government. Look at the developments in Germany -- you have a far right party in the German Bundestag that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
But perhaps the most structurally significant shift is that left-wing parties have lost their traditional working-class base. Low-income workers are particularly affected by economic crisis, with more and more voting for the right because they feel abandoned by the traditional parties of the left.
Many of Orban's supporters came from rural, poorer parts of the country. If I look at Sunday's election tally in the county of Veszprem, where my mother grew up, Magyar won the popular vote with 47.4% vs.44.8% for FIDESZ. The margin of victory in Budapest and other cities was by a much wider margin.
The difference between Hungary and other dictatorships is that Orban had a legitimate democratic past. Maybe he remembered that when he was solidly defeated.
Hungary had the benefit of a youthful and vigorous candidate. In the United States the problem is the corruption within both political parties. Neither the choice of the senile and untalented Joe Biden or the less inspiring Kamala Harris demonstrated any commitment to a thriving democracy, quite the opposite. Any mediocre political party should have defeated Donald Trump. Losing to him took a tremendous effort on the part of the Democratic Party. The lack of a vital and visionary opposition party is the greatest threat to our democracy. The shutting down of The Liberal Patriot is just one indication that no such inspiring opposition committed to liberal values is on the horizon.
I should add that Brazil switched from one corrupt and convicted criminal president to another. Voters rarely care about corruption from what they perceive as their side.
"Voters rarely care about corruption from what they perceive as their side."
I wonder if that's true. Not in my case. My politics is conservative, back to when I had a Goldwater sticker on my bicycle. Trump is no conservative, and never has been. Corrupt, yes. His Dad might have been even worse!
A big difference between Hungary and any non-European at-risk democracy: the constraining power of the EU.
I am sure Orbán would love to imprison his rivals (like Erdogan and Putin did), but he feared punishment by the EU. Hungary is a small country in the EU. Incumbents in medium or major powers (Modi, Trump etc) are not.
Is that praise for the EU? The EU was the reason why Brexit happened. After that came the deluge of polarized politics. The EU knows how to tax and spend. It does not know how to defend.
“This means that Magyar faces two equally unappetizing choices.” This is false equivalence. They’re not even close to being equal. Elections have consequences. You can’t tolerate the intolerant. He should fire them all.
“Magyar faces two equally unappetizing choices. He can choose to play completely by existing rules; but if he does, he is leaving many of Orbán’s corrupt appointees in key positions in the administration and the state media,… Or he can fire anybody who appears more loyal to Orbán than to the constitution”
In his victory speech Magyar made it crystal clear he is choosing the second option. Said explicitly that all the corrupt officials should leave public life immediately.
I don’t think there needs to be a dilemma here. The right thing to do is to fire them and then also reform institutions and their appointments so that it becomes much, much harder to corrupt them again in the future.
Perhaps I misread you as classifying Trump as a populist. NOT.
Dangerous, senile old fool, who has failed at everything he's tried, except inheriting his Dad's fortune. Dad was a bad one too. Here in the US, we hope for an early heart-attack.
This raises the question: why try to stay in power permanently if you don't need to do so? If you can enrich yourself sufficiently while in office why put your life and freedom at risk with a coup? Once you succeed at a coup you have to constantly watch your back and such leaders rarely get to retire peacefully.
Coups often happen because the individuals involved feel they have no choice -- if they don't they will lose their life, freedom or at least their wealth -- or because it is the only way to gain power or wealth. After you've exercised power for a decade and get to keep the vast pile of money you 'earned' why would you take the risk?
Yes, people who have genuine strong ideological commitments might but that is a different and less selfish failure mode (if often worse).
En tant qu’européenne, je suis immensément soulagée et heureuse aujourd’hui !!! Oui les choses sont fragiles, mais c’est un signe d’espoir dans cette période sombre ou tout les politologues se plaisent à présenter la bascule de l’Europe à l’extrême droite comme inévitable. Et bien non !!! L’Europe résiste quand les US se sont vautres dans le populisme réactionnaire et vulgaire le plus repoussant !!
If we don't start from the baseline that the United States has never been that close to a democracy according to its real meaning, and especially according to what its own documents claim, then we will get nowhere in assessing it anywhere.
And “Thank You Brazil” for earlier doing what the US failed to do- jailing an insurrectionist fascist. It’s wonderful to see somewhere that there is still a functioning Justice system.
Thank you for acknowledging that Orban's ouster was a good day for democracy. I was beginning to wonder where you argument was headed. Let me, if you will, add something about this victory that you did not mention and which I believe is relevant for not only Hungary; not only other authoritarian regimes, and not least the United States: the turnout of young voters. This referendum was as much about generational change and the quest of young voters to support political leaders who they believe embody their values and future well-being. It was a referendum against a generation that views politics as a means to their self-enrichment. The veil has been lifted, and I suspect young voters elsewhere will seek to disenfranchise political leaders with the same objectives.
thank you for your
highly insightful ideas
I did not think
of that vital dimension
of this victory!
You mean all those young people who vote at the astonishing rate of 50% in presidential elections? Those young people?
I agree with your assessment but I would like to know why the swing away from Orban only embraced the centre right. What became of the Left in Hungarian politics?
A very good question. I think the political Left in Hungary and many other EU countries has been weakened in recent years, with the centre right and the emergence of far right parties demonstrating increasing strength with voters.
For example, in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, the centre-right EPP secured 188 out of 720 seats, followed by the Social Democrats (S&D) with 136 seats and the far-right Patriots for Europe group with 84 seats. The shift moved the political spectrum rightward, with the majority of MEPs now sitting on the right side of the chamber.
At the national level, seven EU member states — Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Slovakia — now have far-right parties within government. Look at the developments in Germany -- you have a far right party in the German Bundestag that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
But perhaps the most structurally significant shift is that left-wing parties have lost their traditional working-class base. Low-income workers are particularly affected by economic crisis, with more and more voting for the right because they feel abandoned by the traditional parties of the left.
Many of Orban's supporters came from rural, poorer parts of the country. If I look at Sunday's election tally in the county of Veszprem, where my mother grew up, Magyar won the popular vote with 47.4% vs.44.8% for FIDESZ. The margin of victory in Budapest and other cities was by a much wider margin.
The difference between Hungary and other dictatorships is that Orban had a legitimate democratic past. Maybe he remembered that when he was solidly defeated.
Hungary had the benefit of a youthful and vigorous candidate. In the United States the problem is the corruption within both political parties. Neither the choice of the senile and untalented Joe Biden or the less inspiring Kamala Harris demonstrated any commitment to a thriving democracy, quite the opposite. Any mediocre political party should have defeated Donald Trump. Losing to him took a tremendous effort on the part of the Democratic Party. The lack of a vital and visionary opposition party is the greatest threat to our democracy. The shutting down of The Liberal Patriot is just one indication that no such inspiring opposition committed to liberal values is on the horizon.
I should add that Brazil switched from one corrupt and convicted criminal president to another. Voters rarely care about corruption from what they perceive as their side.
"Voters rarely care about corruption from what they perceive as their side."
I wonder if that's true. Not in my case. My politics is conservative, back to when I had a Goldwater sticker on my bicycle. Trump is no conservative, and never has been. Corrupt, yes. His Dad might have been even worse!
If he was such an authoritarian why did Orban give up power so easily?
A big difference between Hungary and any non-European at-risk democracy: the constraining power of the EU.
I am sure Orbán would love to imprison his rivals (like Erdogan and Putin did), but he feared punishment by the EU. Hungary is a small country in the EU. Incumbents in medium or major powers (Modi, Trump etc) are not.
Is that praise for the EU? The EU was the reason why Brexit happened. After that came the deluge of polarized politics. The EU knows how to tax and spend. It does not know how to defend.
“This means that Magyar faces two equally unappetizing choices.” This is false equivalence. They’re not even close to being equal. Elections have consequences. You can’t tolerate the intolerant. He should fire them all.
Elections have consequences and the desire for "free stuff" is deadly to a democracy.
“Magyar faces two equally unappetizing choices. He can choose to play completely by existing rules; but if he does, he is leaving many of Orbán’s corrupt appointees in key positions in the administration and the state media,… Or he can fire anybody who appears more loyal to Orbán than to the constitution”
In his victory speech Magyar made it crystal clear he is choosing the second option. Said explicitly that all the corrupt officials should leave public life immediately.
I don’t think there needs to be a dilemma here. The right thing to do is to fire them and then also reform institutions and their appointments so that it becomes much, much harder to corrupt them again in the future.
Perhaps I misread you as classifying Trump as a populist. NOT.
Dangerous, senile old fool, who has failed at everything he's tried, except inheriting his Dad's fortune. Dad was a bad one too. Here in the US, we hope for an early heart-attack.
This raises the question: why try to stay in power permanently if you don't need to do so? If you can enrich yourself sufficiently while in office why put your life and freedom at risk with a coup? Once you succeed at a coup you have to constantly watch your back and such leaders rarely get to retire peacefully.
Coups often happen because the individuals involved feel they have no choice -- if they don't they will lose their life, freedom or at least their wealth -- or because it is the only way to gain power or wealth. After you've exercised power for a decade and get to keep the vast pile of money you 'earned' why would you take the risk?
Yes, people who have genuine strong ideological commitments might but that is a different and less selfish failure mode (if often worse).
En tant qu’européenne, je suis immensément soulagée et heureuse aujourd’hui !!! Oui les choses sont fragiles, mais c’est un signe d’espoir dans cette période sombre ou tout les politologues se plaisent à présenter la bascule de l’Europe à l’extrême droite comme inévitable. Et bien non !!! L’Europe résiste quand les US se sont vautres dans le populisme réactionnaire et vulgaire le plus repoussant !!
Good to see democracy still works.
Thank you greatly for your
highly enlightening analysis
If we don't start from the baseline that the United States has never been that close to a democracy according to its real meaning, and especially according to what its own documents claim, then we will get nowhere in assessing it anywhere.
The fall of Orban has proven that the "backsliding" idea is to a large part wrong.
And “Thank You Brazil” for earlier doing what the US failed to do- jailing an insurrectionist fascist. It’s wonderful to see somewhere that there is still a functioning Justice system.